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Modeling of Uncertainty in System and Mission Models
  • October 28 2025 - 5:20 pm - 5:50 pm
  • English

Understanding and modeling uncertainty is crucial in systems engineering to improve design, performance, and risk management. The presentation introduces the Precise Semantics for Uncertainty Modeling (PSUM), a new standard by OMG, which defines key concepts like uncertainty, precision, and belief. While PSUM provides a metamodel, it lacks integration with widely used modeling approaches like SysML and UAFML. The discussion explores extending these standards to incorporate uncertainty modeling, offering examples and potential applications, including SysML V2. By associating uncertainty with system measurements, risks, and precision, engineers can better address unknowns, improve designs, and manage operational challenges. The presentation emphasizes the importance of modeling uncertainty not just in measurements but as an integral part of the design and operation process, ultimately enhancing system reliability and performance.